Report Predicts Lower Semi Production for 2023

Postal contractors struggling to replace their semitrucks with new ones are unlikely to get much relief in 2023.

A report from ACT Research — a trucking industry analysis firm — predicts that Class 8 vehicle production in 2023 will be lower than previously forecast due to a perfect storm of world events. The annual report — North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook — was announced in a May 10 blog post.

“Given the corrosive effects of inflation and the Fed’s response, uncertainty as to the depth and duration of events in Ukraine, and the impact of Chinese COVID lockdowns on global supply chains, the economy is walking a fine line in 2022,” ACT’s President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth stated in the blog post.

“Trucking industry profits tend to lag the freight cycle, so are likely to peak around Q3’22,” he wrote. “As profits lag relative to the cycle, so too does production for heavy-duty trucks and trailers.”

This led the group to lower its 2023 Class 8 build forecast, Vieth explained. He said supply chain issues will last longer than anticipated, particularly for semiconductors.

But the news isn’t all bad. Vieth stated that semitruck production is expected to increase, just not as much as previously thought.

“Carrier profitability is robust, and should there be a recession, we anticipate that it will be shallow and short-lived, and pent-up demand for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles still remains,” he said.