Report: Mail Volume Projected To Drop Sharply Over Next Decade

A USPS watchdog report projects first-class and marketing mail will decline 14-41% over the next decade as consumers embrace digital alternatives.

The USPS Office of Inspector General based this conclusion on a simulation projecting mail volumes would continue to fall through 2035, according to its report.

Given the “steep decline” in mail since 2015, the simulation projects that even in the rosiest scenario, mail volume would still drop 14%, with a baseline estimate of 29%. Under that baseline estimate, the 98.2 billion pieces of mail expected for 2025 would fall to 70.1 billion by 2035.

The simulation also projects that consumer first-class mail “will be harder hit” by those declines than business first-class mail; marketing mail is projected to be more resilient than both in most of the model’s scenarios.

The report noted that “the severity of future declines in mail volume will have important impacts on the Postal Service’s ability to meet its financial and operational obligations moving forward,” given that mail still accounts for approximately half of the Postal Service’s revenue.

“As traditional mail volumes continue to decline in the future and contribute less to the Postal Service’s bottom line,” the report read, “significant actions may be needed to allow additional financial flexibility, save costs, or generate additional revenue.”

OIG added that even in the worst-case scenario, USPS would remain the world’s largest mail market. In that event, USPS would still handle “four times as much mail in 2035 as the world’s second busiest post did in 2022.”