Analysis: New EPA Standards Could Lead to Largest Prebuy Ever

An ACT Research analysis shows indications that a substantial prebuy of Class 8 trucks is likely before new EPA diesel exhaust emissions standards become law in 2027. 

The study, “Bigger Than Ever?: The Higher the Cost, The Bigger the Prebuy” analyzed these new standards and their likely impact, concluding that they could lead to the “largest prebuy ever,” beginning sometime in 2025 or 2026. 

Specifically, these new standards would reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) from trucks and update greenhouse gas standards for commercial vehicles, reducing NOx emissions by as much as 60 percent by 2045. 

“The coming prebuys will have large effects on commercial vehicle volumes and industry employment, which will have to be ramped to fulfill demand, only to be followed by significant job cuts and industry financial performance,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT. 

Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, added that the final resolution of prebuy size will be determined by the state of the economy in 2025-26.